Baseball at Memorial Day 2005

There are 3 guideposts in the baseball season:

Memorial Day: roughly one third of the season

All Star Break: mythical half way point

Labor Day: the pennant race stretch (last 25 games)

So let's look at the standings.

In the AL East, Baltimore leads Bos & NY by 4 games. The O's are playing at a .620 pace which translates into 100 wins. It won't happen. Baltimore won't win 100 games and will fizzle out. My money is on NYYankees winning this division. I am not so optimistic about Boston, although they may win enough games to win the wild card again!

In the AL Central, it's the Chisox playing at a .667 pace, or a projected 108 victories. It won't happen. The Chisox will slow down considerably and Minnesota will sneak in with a strong finish. This is going to be a very exciting race in September but only one will move on the post season.

In the AL West, Texas and the Angels are a virtual tie. The Angels should win this division but the absence of Vlad Guerrero is killing them. The Rangers continue to amaze me because they have a very talented core of young players and their pitching has been excellent so far. Nevertheless, I think that the Angels are just a little bit better than the Rangers.

In the NL East, the Marlins, Mets, Nats and Braves have a wonderful 4 team race. I like the Marlins' young pitching. This could be a 3 team race in September. I think that the Nats will eventually fade.

In the NL Central, St Louis is running away and will win by 10 games. It's going to be a long year for everyone else in this division.

In the NL West, San Diego and Arizona are surprises. I think that the LA Dodgers will make it close but SD will win.

So let's check out my predictions at the All Star Break in 6 weeks.